Due to the Arctic’s extreme environmental conditions and remoteness maritime operators are strongly demanding user-specified weather and sea-ice predictions. With the chaotic nature of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice system and systematic errors inherent in our model systems, a careful and accurate estimation of the forecast accuracy, is needed to provide the end-user with high-quality information for decision-making. Probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble prediction system can provide the necessary information. In previous end-user workshops and training sessions, we have gained extensive knowledge where advanced services are needed and have the potential to drive innovation. We will built-up on this knowledge and create a consortium of natural and social scientists, commercial and public suppliers of navigational products and services, and end-users from the maritime sectors. For additional guidance and outreach to end-users not part of the project we establish a Stakeholder Advisory Group with key representatives from the shipping, tourism, military, and fisheries sectors.
In order to allow for advanced probabilistic weather forecasting, the operational weather prediction system of MET Norway will be enhanced by coupling to a 1D ocean turbulence model allowing a physically consistent error propagation and operationally feasible coupling strategy. The ocean sea-ice prediction system, as part of the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service will also be enhanced using better knowledge of atmospheric forecast uncertainties. Novel ensemble based forecast products will be analysed, designed and refined in a co-production process. The involvement of partners from the public and commercial sectors, will warrant an interactive and flexible development of forecast products and ensure a user-oriented development of the system. With novel methodologies from the social sciences present-day and future forecast information needs will be assessed.
The project is organized in four workpackages (WPs). WP0 is responsible for the coordination of project and the SAG. WP1 and WP2 are organized along a forecast values chain. WP1 represents the development of ensemble forecast systems, while WP2 entails the added-value process of public and commercial services. WP3 overviews the value chain and analyses the process from forecast generation to user decisions.